SEESOX, at the invitation of the Global Strategy Forum,
addressed a well-attended seminar at the House of Lords on 19 March. It was co-chaired by Lord Lothian (the former
Michael Ancram) and Jack Straw MP.
SEESOX provided three speakers – David Madden, Max Watson and Jonathan
Scheele. The theme was “South East
Europe: Revisiting Convergence – Diagnosis and Prognosis”.
David Madden
launched the discussion, highlighting the background to and the thinking
behind, the SEESOX Hilary Term seminar series and posing – and partially
answering - three questions:
- Do the countries of South East Europe have an alternative to EU accession? Probably No.
- He did not believe that even Turkey has a long-term alternative to EU membership.
- Can the EU exercise conditionality? Probably Yes.
- And does the EU have a transformative effect? Possibly Yes.
He pointed to some positive elements in the situation –
enlargement was still on the radar, with Montenegro probably leading the other
states in South East Europe; there appeared to be openings between Serbia and
Kosovo; the election of Nicos Anastassiades brought a champion of solution to
the tackling of the Cyprus problem, though he no doubt had other more pressing concerns
at the moment; and there appeared to be some stirrings in Paris, particularly,
and Berlin on EU/Turkey. On the negative side of the ledger was the growing
level of asperity in the region about the credibility of the accession process;
the lack of a really committed champion of accession in Continental Europe
(though partial champions have caused a few problems in the past); and the
possibility of proliferating vetoes, even if countries get near the finishing
line.
He also noted the emergence of a big new issue in the
region: Cyprus
Gas. This potentially
involved all the main actors in the East Mediterranean region, including
Israel, and some from outside, including the US and Russia. He felt it
could have bad
consequences or good. While he hoped the
latter would be the case, he believed that, whatever happened, Cyprus Gas would
certainly exercise enormous influence in the region for years to come.