Monday, 14 January 2013

South East Europe: Revisiting convergence

David Madden

In the good old days, it was a relatively straightforward process for European countries to join the EU. One met the political and economic criteria for membership, received the formal avis or tick of approval from the European Commission (a bit like giving one’s coin to Charon), passed the entrance exam of satisfying the acquis communautaire (all the rules and regulations painstakingly negotiated and agreed by ones future partners) and entered as a full member. Countries joined individually or as in groups: diplomats spoke of regattas and flotillas - the land-lubbers in Brussels tending to favour nautical terminology. Easy!!
   One joined a club where there were agreed norms, rules and values. Joining it showed that one had arrived, and that one belonged: that one was entitled to the benefits of membership; and even had an equal voice on the Council with eg Germany. Not bad for a country of the size of Cyprus or Slovenia. More, joining pointed the way towards transition, economic convergence and strengthened democracy.
   The profound crisis in the Eurozone, and its likely consequences, have changed this simple, even idyllic, picture of the road towards convergence. Frankly, the EU has become less convincing: as an economic model, as a source of growth, as a policy anchor, and as a normative power with effective conditionality. Above all, there is lack of clarity: on the precise terms of how the crisis in the Eurozone will be overcome; what new banking/financial/economic/political structures will emerge; and how counties inside the Eurozone will relate to countries outside the Eurozone, individually and collectively. In short, what sort of EU will future members be joining? And what will the future acquis communautaire look like? Croatia joins this year, but who is next? And what does the experience of Greece mean for other countries in the region? The idea that joining the EU/euro “clubs” is a passport to growth, stability and political solidarity must be badly shaken, from their perspective.
   Yes, life used to be so easy. Or was it? One thinks of De Gaulle vetoing UK accession, Greece joining despite a negative avis, the travails of Turkey, the years it took for Spain and Portugal to negotiate entry, and the complications of a divided Cyprus joining the EU. Perhaps entry was never as uncomplicated as it looked on paper. On the other side of the balance, were all the founding member states paragons of political and economic virtue? Was there an inflation of standards? There is no doubt however that the challenges and complications of entry have increased.
   SEESOX has for all its ten years strongly supported enlargement of the Union. This remains the position. But, neither ostriches nor Ozymandias, our heads remain vigilant and well above the surrounding sand. For this reason, and reflecting our combined expertise on the region, we are running an 8-Part seminar series in the Hilary Term revisiting the theme of convergence and what it means; and tackling individually the various themes: economics, society, reform, power-sharing, foreign policy and the all-important domestic policy. Uppermost in our minds will be the two questions: What is happening? And what is to be done?
   The first seminar takes place on the 14th January. Two of the three convenors of the series, Othon Anastasakis and Jonathan Scheele (Max Watson will speak in the second seminar), get together with Kalypso Nicolaidis and Dimitar Bechev, to debate the question “Europeanisation and convergence in practice – in neutral or in reverse?”   

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