South East Europe: Revisiting Convergence – Diagnosis and Prognosis

Jonathan Scheele

SEESOX, at the invitation of the Global Strategy Forum, addressed a well-attended seminar at the House of Lords on 19 March.  It was co-chaired by Lord Lothian (the former Michael Ancram) and Jack Straw MP.  SEESOX provided three speakers – David Madden, Max Watson and Jonathan Scheele.  The theme was “South East Europe: Revisiting Convergence – Diagnosis and Prognosis”.

David Madden launched the discussion, highlighting the background to and the thinking behind, the SEESOX Hilary Term seminar series and posing – and partially answering - three questions:

• Do the countries of South East Europe have an alternative to EU accession? Probably No.
• He did not believe that even Turkey has a long-term alternative to EU membership.
• Can the EU exercise conditionality? Probably Yes.
• And does the EU have a transformative effect? Possibly Yes.

He pointed to some positive elements in the situation – enlargement was still on the radar, with Montenegro probably leading the other states in South East Europe; there appeared to be openings between Serbia and Kosovo; the election of Nicos Anastassiades brought a champion of solution to the tackling of the Cyprus problem, though he no doubt had other more pressing concerns at the moment; and there appeared to be some stirrings in Paris, particularly, and Berlin on EU/Turkey. On the negative side of the ledger was the growing level of asperity in the region about the credibility of the accession process; the lack of a really committed champion of accession in Continental Europe (though partial champions have caused a few problems in the past); and the possibility of proliferating vetoes, even if countries get near the finishing line.

He also noted the emergence of a big new issue in the region: Cyprus Gas. This potentially involved all the main actors in the East Mediterranean region, including Israel, and some from outside, including the US and Russia. He felt it could have bad consequences or good.  While he hoped the latter would be the case, he believed that, whatever happened, Cyprus Gas would certainly exercise enormous influence in the region for years to come.

Domestic politics - democratic regression?

David Madden

On 4 March, the SEESOX seminar series  “Revisiting Convergence” looked at Democratic Regression: mainly in South East Europe (SEE), but also straying into Southern and Central Europe. The speakers were Iveta Radicova, Othon Anastasakis and Kerem Oktem; and Jonathan Scheele was an active chair. This brief post cannot do justice to the richness and texture of the presentations and subsequent discussion, but picks out some themes.

   The EU perspective is not as credible now as previously, and the accession process has tended to stagnate. Traditionally “Brussels” was seen as “better” than national institutions, though this is less the case now. Nevertheless there is no better model for political and economic reform in SEE than the EU.

   Divisions in Europe are North/South, East/West, large countries/small countries. Also old democracies/new democracies. In the former there is little evidence of long term decline of trust in government, and relative satisfaction with the performance of democracy over time. By contrast, the 1989 revolutions were a positive event, but it is not possible to say that the majority has enthusiastically embraced the new way of life and the accompanying social and economic transformation.